{"id":44288,"date":"2021-09-11T16:21:16","date_gmt":"2021-09-11T14:21:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aware-online.com\/?p=44288"},"modified":"2021-09-13T22:11:02","modified_gmt":"2021-09-13T20:11:02","slug":"calculate-the-number-of-people-during-a-demonstration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aware-online.com\/en\/calculate-the-number-of-people-during-a-demonstration\/","title":{"rendered":"Calculate the number of people during a demonstration"},"content":{"rendered":"
On the 5th of september 2021, an anti Covid-19 protest march was held in Amsterdam, The\u00a0 Netherlands.<\/span> Part of the discussion afterwards was how many demonstrators came to this protest march.<\/span> This raises the question of how to calculate how many protesters are present at a specific location and a specific moment in time.<\/span> In this article we explain a method that, according to the dutch news channel NOS<\/a>, would have been used by the Dutch Police to estimate the number of people during the protest march.<\/span><\/p>\n

Calculating the number of square meters<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n
In order to estimate how many people are in a specific location, the first step is to calculate the size of an area<\/strong>.<\/span> Normally, the area can be calculated by mutiplying the length of an area by its width.<\/span> That would mean, that a football field with a length of 100 meters and a width of 64 meters has an area size of 6,400 square meters<\/strong> (m\u00b2).<\/span> Using a website such as Mapchecking.com<\/a>, the number of square meters on a map can be calculated by applying geographic parameters with simple mouse clicks.<\/span> In the image below you can see that the number of square meters of “De Dam” in Amsterdam is around 14,000, depending on where exactly the geographical parameters are applied.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Aantal<\/u><\/p>\n

Please note<\/span>:<\/strong> in practice the size of a demonstration area is much more difficult to calculate.<\/span> Not only\u00a0 the length and the width of the location may be unclear<\/strong> (partly because of the shape of the location), also the location of a demonstration is often dynamic<\/strong>.<\/span> In other words, demonstrators regularly mix up and move to other locations.<\/span> In addition, it should also be taken into account that the maps and\/or satellite images that are used may be dated.<\/span><\/p>\n

Calculating the density of a crowd<\/span><\/h2>\n
If the size a location is known, it can be calculated how many people are at the location.<\/span> This is done via the Mapchecking.com<\/a> website by entering the density of the number of people<\/strong> per square meter, on the basis of which the total number of people on the total surface is calculated.<\/span> In other words, suppose that there is exactly one person per square meter on a 6,400 square meter football field, that would mean that there are 6,400 people on the football field.<\/span><\/p>\n
However, the question in reality is how many people are standing on a square meter during a demonstration.<\/span> While this question may seem simple, the answer to this question is a lot more complex.<\/span> During a demonstration, the number of people per square meter is not evenly distributed<\/strong> over every square meter, and it is also often the case that people move<\/strong> to different spots.<\/span> It can be useful to take an average<\/strong> to calculate the density.<\/span> This means that the average number of people per square meter is taken into account.<\/span><\/p>\n
But how do you arrive at an average of the number of people per square meter during a demonstration?<\/span> That can be quite complex too.<\/span> First of all we recommend to use multiple data sources<\/strong>.<\/span> In addition to camera images, think of drone imagery, imagery from social media and estimates from colleagues “on the ground”.<\/span> So if there are an average of two people per square meter on a football field, it could be an estimation that there are a total of 12,800 people on the field.<\/span> And at 1.5 people per square meter, the geographically marked area could hold well over 20,000 people, according to Mapchecking.com<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Aantal<\/strong><\/h2>\n

A few side notes
\n<\/strong><\/h2>\n
This article describes only one way to estimate the number of people on a demonstration.<\/span> In reality, you will have to use multiple methods<\/strong> and different sources<\/strong> to arrive at the most accurate estimate possible.<\/span> You should also take into account obstacles<\/strong> that reduce the possible area of a location that can be occupied.<\/span> Finally, crowds are very dynamic<\/strong>: people move around on different areas, which can make it difficult to estimate the density of groups of people and thus the number of people at a location.<\/span><\/p>\n

Questions, suggestions or comments?<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n
Do you have questions about this article?<\/span> Or do you have suggestions for estimating the number of people during a demonstration?<\/span> Let us know<\/a> or comment on this article.<\/span> We would of course also like to see you in one of our OSINT training courses<\/a>.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On the 5th of september 2021, an anti Covid-19 protest march was held in Amsterdam, The\u00a0 Netherlands. Part of the … <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":349,"featured_media":44292,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[83],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nCalculate the number of protesters at a demonstration - Aware Online<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"How can you calculate the number of protesters at a demonstration? 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